Reporter Michael Crowley discusses the US-led plan to rebuild Gaza and reshape the Middle East. Talks of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, potential three-way alliance with Saudi Arabia, and challenges in reaching a lasting resolution. Insights into Israeli politics, ongoing conflict with Hamas, and President Biden's stance on anti-Semitism.
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Quick takeaways
Negotiations aim to swap Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, intensifying urgency for a ceasefire in Gaza.
The grand diplomatic bargain seeks to reshape Middle East alliances, emphasizing stability and economic integration.
Challenges arise from Israel's hesitance towards a two-state solution, hindering progress in the diplomatic initiatives.
Deep dives
The Push for Ceasefire Negotiations
Amid intense negotiations for a ceasefire in the Gaza war, talks have revolved around releasing Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. The US is keen on a ceasefire due to the imminent Israeli assault on Rafa, a vast number of people are trapped in the city, increasing the urgency for protection. Despite initial hopes of progress, Israel's rejection of a modified ceasefire proposal led to an Israeli incursion into Rafa, escalating tensions.
The Ambitious Diplomatic Grand Bargain
The ongoing negotiations extend beyond a ceasefire, aiming for a grand diplomatic bargain involving Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the Palestinians. This monumental plan seeks to reshape Israel's relations with Arab neighbors, emphasizing stability and economic integration in the region. President Biden continues the groundwork laid by previous agreements like the Abraham Accords to forge stronger alliances and counter shared threats, particularly Iran's influence.
Challenges and Complications in Negotiations
The evolving negotiations face substantial challenges, notably with Israel's hesitance to commit to a Palestinian state in exchange for normalized ties with Saudi Arabia. Prime Minister Netanyahu's staunch opposition to a two-state solution reflects broader sentiments in Israel's political landscape. The complex demands laid out after the October 7th events highlight the intricate balance required to navigate these high-stakes diplomatic endeavors.
Urgency and Political Calculations
Time constraints and political considerations add urgency to the diplomatic initiatives, as Saudi Arabia and the Biden administration see the current window as critical for a potential agreement. With the looming prospect of a Democratic president as key to securing congressional backing for a security agreement, the Biden administration views this opportunity as a strategic move to enhance regional stability and US-Saudi relations. President Biden aims to leverage this initiative as a diplomatic milestone amidst regional challenges and global shifts.
Implications for Hamas and Ceasefire Talks
The complex diplomatic maneuvers pose challenges for Hamas, which seeks to maintain its influence while opposing the proposed diplomatic solutions involving a Palestinian state. Hamas' resistance to peace processes and statehood agreements complicates the overall negotiations and casts doubts on the ceasefire talks. The broader diplomatic ambitions clash with the immediate concerns of a ceasefire, underscoring the intricate landscape of conflicting interests and aspirations in the region.
If and when Israel and Hamas reach a deal for a cease-fire, the United States will immediately turn to a different set of negotiations over a grand diplomatic bargain that it believes could rebuild Gaza and remake the Middle East.
Michael Crowley, who covers the State Department and U.S. foreign policy for The Times, explains why those involved in this plan believe they have so little time left to get it done.
Guest: Michael Crowley, a reporter covering the State Department and U.S. foreign policy for The New York Times.