At Any Rate Asia post-Liberation Day
Apr 10, 2025
Sajjid Chinoy, Chief Asia Economist at JP Morgan, shares his expertise on the evolving economic landscape in emerging markets post-Liberation Day. He discusses the implications of recent U.S. tariffs on Asian growth and explores how policymakers are responding with various tools. The conversation highlights challenges in U.S.-China relations and their impact on trade dynamics. Additionally, Chinoy delves into currency exchange rates and the intricacies of Asian financial markets, emphasizing key risk factors to watch.
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Tariff Surge Threatens Global Trade
- Trump's tariff hikes drastically raised US consumer costs and threatened to shrink purchasing power.
- This tariff surge risked disrupting global trade, harming emerging markets reliant on export growth.
Asian Growth Faces Multiple Headwinds
- Asia's growth faces cyclical shocks from slowing US and China economies plus structural challenges.
- Elevated tariffs on China encourage transshipment through third countries, affecting regional trade dynamics.
Monetary and Fiscal Policy Needed
- Monetary policy will be the primary tool for Asia to counter growth shocks in 2025.
- Countries with fiscal space should also deploy fiscal easing to support growth alongside monetary easing.