Understanding the New World (Dis)Order, with Stephen Kotkin | GoodFellows: John H. Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, and Bill Whalen | Hoover Institution
Oct 26, 2023
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Historian Stephen Kotkin joins Niall Ferguson and John Cochrane to discuss the axis of ill will formed by Russia, China, and Iran, the challenges faced by Israel, and the uncertainty in US strategy. They also explore the need for President Biden to explain Ukraine's funding, the rise of China and its potential dangers, and the importance of unity and national purpose during times of crisis.
The need for a coherent US strategy to deter Iran and its proxies from further aggression to protect vulnerable countries like Israel.
The challenges of deterrence against non-detourable regimes like Iran and the importance of considering alternative strategies.
The significance of a unified US strategy, strong leadership, and collaboration among democratic nations to address growing threats from the axis of ill will formed by China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea.
Deep dives
The Importance of Clear Strategy to Deter Iran and Protect Israel
Neil Ferguson expresses concern about Israel's vulnerability due to fighting on multiple fronts and highlights the need for a coherent US strategy to deter Iran and its proxies from further aggression. He criticizes the Biden administration's poor track record in deterrence and emphasizes the potential danger if deterrence fails, putting Israel in a more precarious position than ever.
The Challenges of Deterrence and Non-Detourable Regimes
Stephen Caucken discusses the difficulties of deterrence against non-detourable regimes like Iran. He highlights the past failures of deterrence, the Trump administration's inaction in response to Iran's provocations, and the potential risk of future conflicts. Caucken emphasizes the importance of considering alternative strategies and the limited options when dealing with regimes that don't respond to traditional deterrence.
The Need for Coherent US Strategy and Leadership
The panelists discuss the importance of a unified US strategy and strong leadership to address the growing threats in the world. They emphasize the dangers posed by the axis of ill will formed by China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, and the need for decisive action and collaboration among democratic nations. They also stress the significance of leadership in rallying domestic support and gaining the trust and support of allies.
Challenges of Providing Aid to Ukraine
The panelists acknowledge the challenges in providing aid to Ukraine, including limited resources, supply chain issues, and political constraints. They discuss the need for a clear definition of victory and armistice in Ukraine, along with concerns about waning international support and public opinion. They urge the US to reassess its military capabilities and industrial policies to strengthen the defense sector.
The Threat of Taiwan and the Importance of Deterrence
The panelists raise concerns about the risk of Chinese aggression towards Taiwan and the potential consequences of a conflict in the region. They stress the need for a strong deterrence strategy and clear communication to dissuade China from making any strategic gambles. They highlight the importance of building international support and maintaining economic resilience to effectively counter the threats posed by authoritarian regimes.
As Israel and Ukraine struggle for survival, a newer “axis of ill will”—formed by Russia, China and Iran—sows discord around the globe. Stephen Kotkin, the Hoover Institution’s Kleinheinz Senior Fellow and a vaunted historian, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson and John Cochrane to assess options abroad and parallels to the past (are we reliving the 1930s, the 1970s, or both?). The trio then dons their speechwriters’ hats to suggest how President Biden can capture the moral high ground. The trio then discusses how President Biden can capture the moral high ground when he makes public statements about the crisis and America’s response to it.
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