Logan Mohtashami on why home prices will cool down
May 23, 2024
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Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami discusses the cooling trend in existing home prices this year. Topics include the impact of seasonal trends on the housing market, mortgage rate lockdown effects on inventory, and home price trends in Florida, Texas, and Louisiana. The episode also covers mortgage refinancing trends and ends with playful banter and podcast promotion.
Existing home prices growth rate expected to cool down this year.
Lower mortgage rates could lead to surge in home sales and prices, impacting housing market stability.
Deep dives
Housing Market Trends and Existing Home Sales
Logan Monashami discusses the current trends in the housing market, highlighting existing home sales and home prices. He mentions that the latest report shows a surprising rise in year-over-year price growth, contrary to some beliefs. Monashami explains that the existing home sales data lags and reflects a lower bar, indicating a cooler price growth than reported. Despite total active inventory remaining low, the positive news is the growth in new listings data, hinting at a more normal year in the real estate market.
Impact of Mortgage Rates on Home Sales
Monashami delves into the influence of mortgage rates on home sales, emphasizing that affordability and rates, not inventory levels, are the primary factors affecting sales. He expresses that a reduction in rates to 6% could lead to a surge in home sales and prices. Monashami outlines the significance of stability in mortgage pricing and praises the growth in inventory to provide a buffer if rates decrease, aiming for a balanced and healthier housing market.
Economic Perspective on Mortgage Rate Trends
In analyzing mortgage rate trends, Monashami addresses the early payoff risk (EPO) and its impact on the housing market. He notes that the current EPO risk is priced into the market, attributing the stability in mortgage pricing to the improved spreads this year. Monashami reflects on the historical context of mortgage spreads and emphasizes the need for consistent pricing to support the real estate industry's sustainability. He underscores the importance of monitoring mortgage rates, inventory growth, and affordability for a stable housing market.
On today's episode, HousingWire CEO Clayton Collins talks with Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami about existing home sales, home prices and mortgage applications.
The HousingWire Daily podcast examines the most compelling articles reported across HW Media. Each morning, we provide our listeners with a deeper look into the stories coming across our newsrooms that are helping Move Markets Forward. Hosted and produced by the HW Media team.