The Fed Comes Bearing Gifts (Ep. 166)

A rare split is opening inside the Federal Reserve. Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, and Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Wealth, dig into what that tension really means as growth projections move higher and rate cuts keep coming. They break down the widening gap between market expectations and the Fed’s own outlook, the mixed signals coming from the latest dot plot, and what dissenting votes reveal about how policymakers are reading inflation and a softening labor market. At the same time, they look to the areas gaining strength, including cyclicals, global markets, commodities and the latest AI rotation, to understand how a divided Fed is shaping positioning as investors look ahead to 2026.

Key Takeaways:

• The Fed is diverging internally: The dot plots and dissents show widening disagreement on how aggressively to cut

• Markets are pricing a different path: Traders expect more easing than the Fed, especially beyond 2026

• Growth projections are rising: The Fed now sees stronger 2025–2026 GDP despite ongoing cuts

• Labor-market signals are weakening: Falling quits and slowing hiring increase pressure on policymakers

• Cyclical strength continues: Industrials, materials, and developed international markets are pushing the rally forward

Jump to:

0:00 - Cold Open, Holidays, And Setup

2:45 - AI Leadership Rotates And Market Breadth

8:50 - Cyclicals Lead, Global Rally Builds

14:40 - Europe, Developed Markets, And Industrials

20:55 - IPOs, Sentiment, And Bull Market Signals

27:00 - The Fed Cuts: Dots, Dissent, And Markets

35:20 -Neutral Rate, Long-Run Inflation, And 2026

41:50 - Press Conference Takeaways And Labor Risks

48:10 - Gold Breakout And Commodities Pulse

53:30 - Labor Market: JOLTS, Quits, And Wages

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com