Best of the Spectator Coffee House Shots: John Curtice – what to expect in 2026
Jan 3, 2026
Join a deep dive into the shifting tides of UK politics as polling expert Sir John Curtice analyzes recent seismic changes. Discover how Reform UK's rise challenges the traditional Conservative-Labour duopoly, revealing the growing significance of the Greens. Explore the decline of major party support, driven by fragmentation and evolving voter identities. Curtice discusses cultural divides, the impact of leadership unpopularity, and the UK's potential shift to a multiparty landscape. Insights into regional dynamics in Scotland, Wales, and England add a layer of intrigue.
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Reform's Historic Poll Lead
- Reform UK led the national polls from May and has remained around 30–32% consistently.
- This is the longest period a non-Labour/Conservative party has topped UK polls in modern history.
Major Parties Below Half The Vote
- Conservative and Labour combined now poll below 50% for the first time in modern records.
- This unprecedented collapse signals deep fragmentation of the two-party system.
Greens Surge Under New Leadership
- Greens rose from about 9% to roughly 13% after Zach Polanski became leader.
- Five parties now average over 10% in polls, a new configuration for UK politics.