The Best Ever CRE Show JF 4077: Rent Growth, Reality Checks and Regional Myths
Nov 2, 2025
John Chang dives into the surprising disconnect between real estate perceptions and reality. He reveals that while Texas markets are experiencing overdevelopment and slowing growth, steady markets like Chicago and Cincinnati are outperforming. With a closer look at rent growth, vacancies, and absorption rates over five years, he highlights the importance of seeking under-the-radar markets. Chang encourages investors to challenge the herd mentality and focus on solid fundamentals rather than hype-driven trends.
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Fed Cut Won't Shift Lending Much
- The Fed's 25bp cut was mostly priced in and won't dramatically change lending conditions.
- Agency debt sits low‑mid 4% and commercial debt mid 6%, keeping lending broadly available.
Dallas Dinner Sparked The Comparison
- John returned from Dallas and relayed investor questions about when Texas rent growth will resume.
- He contrasted Dallas conversations with prior Chicago feedback to show divergent market perceptions.
Sunbelt Hype Fueled Massive Development
- The Sunbelt narrative (jobs, population, HQ moves) drove heavy investor interest and development.
- That momentum has coincided with large completions which can erode near‑term performance.