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Challenges of Trump’s Tariff Strategy
- Trump's tariff strategy faces resistance and lacks cooperation from China and allies.
- Trade war effects extend beyond inflation to cause future supply shortages impacting global markets.
Tariff Impact Lags in Data
- Hard economic data will show tariff impacts with delay, likely around mid-year.
- Soft survey data weakens while labor market remains firm, creating a mixed economic picture.
Timing Tariffs After Tax Cuts
- Avoid aggressive tariff actions before completing tax reforms to stabilize economic impact.
- Implement trade policies after political groundwork to reduce market chaos.