The podcast explores the relationship between dead malls and the future of commercial real estate, highlighting the challenges faced by shopping malls and the office market. It discusses the contrasting fates of two malls in Texas, the pressures on class A commercial real estate properties, the decline in valuation of commercial real estate, and the challenge of converting office spaces to residential properties. It also touches on the importance of retail market demand, underinvestment in properties, the diverse UAE economy, and the role of AI in enhancing creativity.
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Quick takeaways
Upscale malls with unique offerings and amenities have fared better than older malls with declining anchor tenants, highlighting the importance of distinguishing between successful and struggling properties.
The challenges faced by malls parallel the current state of the office market, with even class A and trophy offices facing pressure due to factors such as continuous investment needs and changing tenant demands, emphasizing the necessity of understanding specific dynamics and risks within the office market.
Analyzing the owner's behavior, the complexity of the capital structure, and the relative value across the stack can provide insights into the state of a property and the intentions of the sponsor, showcasing the significance of capital structure analysis in commercial real estate.
Deep dives
Bifurcation in the market: Upscale malls vs. old-school malls
The podcast episode discusses the concept of bifurcation in the commercial real estate market, using malls as an example. It highlights how upscale malls with unique offerings and amenities have fared better compared to older malls with declining anchor tenants. The episode emphasizes that not all malls are the same and that the distinction between successful and struggling properties is important to consider.
The parallels between malls and the office market
The podcast draws parallels between the challenges faced by malls and the current state of the office market. It explores the concept of office "class," with class A properties being considered more desirable and trophy properties representing the highest quality assets. The episode explains that even class A and trophy offices are facing pressure due to factors such as the need for continuous investment and changing tenant demands. It emphasizes the importance of understanding the specific dynamics and risks within the office market.
Capital structure and decision-making in commercial real estate
The podcast delves into the capital structure in commercial real estate, discussing different types of loans and their implications. It looks at the options available to sponsors who own underperforming properties, including negotiating modifications or extensions with lenders. The episode highlights the role of mezzanine debt and the potential for distress sales. It suggests that analyzing the owner's behavior, the complexity of the capital structure, and the relative value across the stack can provide insights into the state of the property and the intentions of the sponsor.
The impact of COVID-19 on the office market
The podcast explores the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the office market. It discusses how the pandemic has accelerated trends that were already affecting the market, such as the importance of quality and tenant demand. The episode highlights the challenges faced by office landlords, including the need to continuously invest in properties to meet changing tenant requirements. It also mentions the increase in remote work and its impact on office space demand, particularly in technology-focused areas like San Francisco.
The importance of sustainability in real estate
The podcast touches on the growing importance of sustainability in the real estate sector. It features discussions with experts who emphasize the need for companies to consider ESG factors and incorporate sustainability in decision-making processes. The episode highlights that a sustainable approach can contribute to a better future and is increasingly expected by stakeholders.
There's been a lot of worry over the future of commercial real estate — especially the outlook for office buildings — in light of higher interest rates and the trend towards work from home. But years ago, Wall Street was worried about a different type of CRE: shopping malls. Back in the 2010s, loans backing malls were souring fast, as customers ordered more online and major anchor tenants (like Sears) shuttered their doors. There were sites such as Deadmalls.com that tracked closures around the country, complete with apocalyptic-looking photos of empty buildings. But of course, while the overall number of shopping malls in the US has dropped, not all of them disappeared. Some have even thrived. So what can the shopping mall experience tell us about the outlook for offices and the broader commercial real estate market? On this episode we speak with Liza Crawford, a long-time CRE veteran and trader of commercial mortgage-backed bonds, who's now co-head of securitized at asset manager TCW.