More or Less Do we really have ‘superflu’?
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Dec 17, 2025 
Nathan Gower, a diligent reporter focused on investigative segments, discusses the NHS's warning about an unprecedented flu season and what the data really shows. He also unpacks the early timing of flu cases, explaining why the peak isn't as alarming as it seems. Meanwhile, Justin Wolfers, an esteemed economics professor, dismantles the notion of 20-25% annual GDP growth for the US, citing historical patterns and the reality of sustainable growth. They tackle hot topics like emigration trends and prison release errors, exposing myths with data-driven insights.
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Early But Not Unprecedented Flu Wave
- The current H3N2 wave came earlier than usual but is not larger than recent peaks in admissions or infections.
- Dr James Hay's growth-rate analysis shows this strain doubles about every seven days, making it notable but not unprecedented.
H3N2 Growth Is High, Not Unique
- Dr James Hay found the new H3N2 variant had a peak growth rate of doubling every seven days.
- In the last 15 years only 2014–15 had a faster peak, so this strain ranks near the top but isn't unique.
Plan For An Earlier Peak
- Expect the epidemic to peak earlier because an earlier, faster growth usually leads to an earlier peak.
- Prepare for a leveling off in mid-December rather than a January peak, per modelling scenarios.