Balancing Assurances and Threats in the Case of Taiwan: A conversation with Bonnie Glaser, Jessica Chen Weiss, and Thomas Christensen
Dec 12, 2023
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Bonnie Glaser, Jessica Chen Weiss, and Thomas Christensen discuss the role of credible assurances in effective deterrence. They emphasize the need for conditioning the threat of punishment and outline necessary actions for the US, China, and Taiwan. The podcast explores the challenges of providing credible assurances, balancing assurances and threats in Taiwan, and maintaining consistent actions and rhetoric.
Assurances, alongside threats, are integral to effective deterrence, emphasizing the need for credible and conditional punishment.
China, the U.S., and Taiwan should provide specific assurances to each other to demonstrate peaceful intentions and maintain stability in cross-strait relations.
Deep dives
The Motivation Behind the Article
The authors were motivated to draft the article to address the lack of concrete explanations and details on credible assurances and deterrence in a prior Foreign Affairs article. They wanted to contribute to the conversation by elaborating on the necessary assurances that the United States, China, and Taiwan could provide to each other.
Understanding Credible Assurances
Credible assurances consist of guarantees that a threat is fully conditional on the target's behavior. They are not compromises, concessions, rewards, or carrots. Instead, they are unilateral efforts to strengthen deterrence without weakening the capacity to respond to perceived threats. For example, in the cross-strait context, credible assurances would be commitments that military capabilities will not be used to exploit the other side or push the envelope, ensuring that they are purely conditional on the target's behavior.
Assurances from China, the United States, and Taiwan
China needs to provide more assurances to demonstrate its peaceful intentions towards Taiwan. This includes winding back provocative military operations near Taiwan, respecting the midline in the Taiwan Strait, revising rhetoric that conveys impatience, and removing conditions that delink threats from Taiwan's behavior. The United States has offered significant assurances, including no official relations with Taiwan, consistent opposition to unilateral changes in the status quo, and no support for Taiwan independence. However, there should be more consistency and clarity in these assurances. Taiwan has provided strong assurances, with the Kuomintang (KMT) emphasizing that Taiwan and the mainland belong to the same country, and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) stating that Taiwan is already an independent sovereign state. The DPP's moderation under President Tsai Ing-wen has been noted, and future DPP administrations should maintain this approach for stability.
Balancing Assurances and Threats
Building up military capabilities is a priority to bolster deterrence against China, but it should be accompanied by assurances to prevent destabilization. Assurances are an integral part of effective deterrence, making threats credible and conditional. Combining assurance with threat is important to present a choice and avoid a perception that one party is damned if they do and damned if they don't. The goal is to make the use of force less attractive by showing that not using force will prevent terrible costs, and this requires both strength in military capabilities and effective assurances.
This podcast episode is a joint and cross-over episode between the CSIS ChinaPower Podcast and the German Marshall Fund’s China Global Podcast. We are joined by Bonnie Glaser, Jessica Chen Weiss, and Thomas Christensen to discuss their recently released article titled “Taiwan and the True Sources of Deterrence.” The authors underline the article’s key point, that assurances, alongside threats, are an integral part of effective deterrence. They emphasize that in order for deterrence to work, the threat of punishment must be not only credible but also conditional. Finally, the authors outline what actions each of the three actors- the U.S., China, and Taiwan- should take to effectively convey assurances to one another.
Ms. Bonnie Glaser is the managing director of the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific program. She is also a nonresident fellow with the Lowy Institute in Sydney, Australia, and a senior associate with the Pacific Forum. She was previously senior adviser for Asia and the director of the China Power Project at CSIS. Ms. Glaser has worked at the intersection of Asia-Pacific geopolitics and U.S. policy for more than three decades.
Dr. Jessica Chen Weiss is a professor for China and Asia-Pacific Studies in the Department of Government at Cornell University. She was previously an assistant professor at Yale University and founded the Forum for American/Chinese Exchange at Stanford University. Formerly, Dr. Weiss served as senior advisor to the Secretary’s Policy Planning Staff at the U.S. State Department on a Council on Foreign Relations Fellowship for Tenured International Relations Scholars.
Dr. Thomas Christensen is a professor of Public and International Affairs and Director of the China and World Program at Columbia University. Prior to this, he served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs with responsibility for relations with China, Taiwan, and Mongolia. His research and teaching focus is on China’s foreign relations, the international relations of East Asia, and international security.
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