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HousingWire Daily

Logan Mohtashami: Jobs data keeping mortgage rates elevated

Feb 10, 2025
Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst, shares his expertise on the interplay between labor market trends and mortgage rates. He discusses how recent job reports are influencing the Federal Reserve's decisions, promoting elevated mortgage rates. The conversation highlights economic complexities, potential job losses, and the impact on housing affordability, particularly in regions like western Florida. Mohtashami offers cautious optimism regarding future mortgage rates while emphasizing the importance of inventory growth in the housing market.
25:22

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • Current job growth and inflationary pressures continue to keep mortgage rates elevated, impacting the overall housing market stability.
  • The housing market is moving towards balance with increased inventory and price adjustments, yet national home prices remain largely stable.

Deep dives

Labor Market Trends and Federal Reserve Implications

The labor market has been experiencing a gradual softening over the past 18 months, indicated by recent job data revisions that underscore neither a collapse nor an immediate rebound. Current job growth remains slightly above forecasts, with wage growth posing challenges for the Federal Reserve, as it signals persistent inflationary pressures. Although the manufacturing sector has faced job losses, surprising gains in government employment have emerged, prompting the Fed to monitor labor dynamics closely. For the Fed to pivot its monetary policy significantly, the labor market would need to show clear signs of deterioration, which has not yet occurred.

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