HousingWire Daily Logan Mohtashami: Jobs data keeping mortgage rates elevated
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Feb 10, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst, shares his expertise on the interplay between labor market trends and mortgage rates. He discusses how recent job reports are influencing the Federal Reserve's decisions, promoting elevated mortgage rates. The conversation highlights economic complexities, potential job losses, and the impact on housing affordability, particularly in regions like western Florida. Mohtashami offers cautious optimism regarding future mortgage rates while emphasizing the importance of inventory growth in the housing market.
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Labor Market Resilience
- The labor market is softening but not breaking, showing resilience for 18 months.
- This resilience necessitates the Federal Reserve to observe a definitive break before significantly altering its policy.
Bond Market and Mortgage Rate Reaction
- The 10-year yield spiked after the jobs report, influenced by a flawed inflation expectations survey.
- However, mortgage pricing hasn't been significantly affected due to improving spreads, mitigating the impact of rising yields.
The Fed's Eggnog
- Logan Mohtashami hypothetically suggests removing the person who spiked the Fed's eggnog, implying a criticism of past Fed decisions.
- He argues that if the Fed hadn't raised rates after 4%, the current economic situation would be different.