Breaking out the 2024 Investing Playbook as Stocks Touch New Highs
Dec 18, 2023
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Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, discusses the 2024 investing playbook and the Fed's rate cut announcement. They explore topics such as interest rates, inflation, recession, and the impact of bond yields on stocks. The importance of high-quality stocks and the Santa Claus rally are also discussed.
The Federal Reserve's indication of possible rate cuts in 2024 suggests interest rates may have peaked and are expected to lower, causing stocks to rise and bond yields to drop.
Investors should focus on factors and characteristics rather than sectors, as the stock market is showing a broadening of the market with smaller companies and high-quality stocks gaining momentum.
Deep dives
Key Point 1: The Federal Reserve and Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve announced another pause in rate hikes, but what caught investors' attention was the possibility of three rate cuts in 2024. This was the first time the Fed used the word 'any' when discussing additional policy firming since it began raising rates in 2022, implying that interest rates may have reached their peak and are expected to go lower. This news caused stocks to rise, with the Dow gaining 500 points. Bond yields also dropped, resulting in mortgage rates going below 7%.
Key Point 2: Outlook for the Stock Market
Despite concerns about concentration and valuations, the stock market saw a significant rotation in November, indicating a broadening of the market. The S&P 500 equal-weight index outperformed the cap-weighted index, suggesting that smaller companies and high-quality stocks outside the 'Magnificent Seven' tech stocks are gaining momentum. Investors are advised to focus on factors and characteristics rather than relying solely on sectors. The performance of small-cap stocks is expected to improve in 2024, especially for companies with strong balance sheets.
Key Point 3: Investor Sentiment and Market Predictions
Investor sentiment has improved, but caution remains. While investors are less worried about the stock market, they still prefer money market funds over stocks and ETFs due to concerns about a potential bubble in AI stocks, mega-cap tech, and crypto. The upcoming presidential election, tensions in the Middle East, inflation, and the possibility of a recession are some of the worries that impact sentiment. However, investors express limited regrets from the past year and anticipate positive returns in the stock and bond markets for 2024.
Liz Ann Sonders, the Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, tells us what to expect next year for the markets and the economy, and how investors should prepare. Plus, the Fed gave investors an early holiday gift by indicating three rate cuts in 2024, which sent the stock market soaring. But the recent rally hasn't totally convinced individual investors that these gains are here to stay. What are they waiting for?