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Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

The EM Financial Stability Report Card | Rohit Goel on Emerging Markets, Dollar Dominance, and Term Premia

Feb 5, 2025
Rohit Goel, a partner and head of global macro at Breakout Capital, dives into the complexities of emerging markets and the dominance of the U.S. dollar. He discusses how fiscal policies impact financial stability, especially amid currency fluctuations. Goel highlights the dual nature of a strong dollar, benefiting exporters while hurting equity markets. Additionally, he explores opportunities in agricultural commodities and the evolving dynamics of bond yields in China, along with the shift towards diverse currency reserves in a multipolar economic landscape.
01:24:37

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • Emerging markets have demonstrated remarkable resilience post-pandemic, with many achieving healthier balance sheets than initially anticipated through proactive economic stabilization measures.
  • Maintaining fiscal discipline is crucial for emerging markets to avoid excessive government spending that could jeopardize the financial stability gained during economic downturns.

Deep dives

The Resilience of Emerging Markets

Emerging markets have shown impressive resilience in the face of global economic challenges, managing to emerge from the pandemic with healthier balance sheets than expected. Initially, the predictions suggested a wave of defaults in these markets; however, only a handful occurred, highlighting the ability of policymakers and corporations to effectively navigate crises. This resilience is attributed to proactive measures taken by many emerging markets to stabilize their economies, such as raising interest rates early to create monetary policy buffers. Nonetheless, fiscal risks remain a concern, as excessive government spending could undermine the stability achieved during tougher times.

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