NatSec Matters Skepticism and Survival in Moscow: Dr. Kirill Shamiev
Nov 19, 2025
Dr. Kirill Shamiev, a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, delves into the Kremlin's internal dynamics amidst the ongoing war in Ukraine. He highlights a growing skepticism among Russian elites about Putin's decisions and the increasing economic anxieties they face. The discussion covers the strain on civil-military relations and the uncertainties surrounding the regime's future. Kirill suggests a likely scenario of a 'semi-frozen conflict,' emphasizing that significant changes in leadership are improbable without a major state collapse.
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Pragmatic Fatalism Among Insiders
- Kirill Shamiev describes a mood of "pragmatic fatalism" among insiders who stay in Russia and adapt to survive.
- They accept centralised decision-making by Putin and focus on achievable personal and organizational goals.
Elite Split On Attritional Strategy
- Elites broadly recognize heavy human and financial costs of the war but split on whether Russia can win by attrition.
- Some believe Russia's larger resources let it wait out Ukraine's collapse in a war of attrition.
Centralized Control With Selective Delegation
- Putin acts as final arbiter among competing elite factions, which reinforces his control.
- Delegation occurs selectively when initiatives can be sold to him, producing a mix of centralized and ad-hoc innovation.