The New Statesman | UK politics and culture
Can we ever trust the US polls?
Oct 23, 2024
Joining the conversation are Scott Keeter, a senior survey advisor at the Pew Research Center, known for his expertise in public opinion polls, along with data journalist Ben Walker, who offers keen insights into political trends. They dive into the uncertainty of polling reliability and historical challenges faced in past elections. Megan Gibson and Katie Stallard discuss the impact of Kamala Harris's campaign strategies on voter turnout and perceptions, addressing the complexities of navigating political centrism in a polarized climate.
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Quick takeaways
- Polling inaccuracies from previous elections have prompted a reevaluation of methodologies, emphasizing the need for diverse approaches to gauge voter sentiment.
- Kamala Harris's campaign faces challenges in connecting with voters on economic issues, highlighting the importance of articulating a compelling vision amid a competitive race.
Deep dives
Polling Challenges from 2016 and 2020
Polls have faced significant scrutiny following the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections due to their inaccuracies in predicting outcomes. Factors contributing to these failures included an underrepresentation of less educated white voters, who increasingly leaned conservative and were often missed in samples. In 2020, pollsters further overstated Joe Biden's lead over Donald Trump, prompting another evaluation of polling methodologies to ensure accuracy in representation. Acknowledging these issues is crucial as polling organizations diversify their techniques, moving away from phone surveys to integrate online polling and texting for a more comprehensive view of voter sentiment.
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