Randa Slim is a leader in conflict resolution, while Charles Lister focuses on Syria and counterterrorism. Fatima Abo Alasrar studies Arabian Peninsula affairs. They discuss the dramatic setbacks faced by the Axis of Resistance, particularly its dynamics with Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. The impact of recent conflicts on regional alliances is examined, along with the growing challenges each group encounters. They also delve into U.S. strategies to counter this Iranian-led network, and the Houthis' alignment with the Palestinian cause highlights evolving geopolitical ambitions.
The recent leadership losses in Hamas and Hezbollah have compromised their operational capabilities, yet possible contingency plans may allow for resilience in their resistance efforts.
The Houthis aim to increase their legitimacy within the Axis of Resistance by directly confronting Israel, reinforcing their reliance on Iranian support and emphasizing regional solidarity with Palestinian causes.
Deep dives
Significance of Sinwar's Death
The death of Yahya Sinwar, the last veteran military leader of Hamas, marks a critical shift in the group's leadership dynamics. This loss could potentially alter the operational capabilities of Hamas and affect its strategic response to Israeli actions. Despite being a major setback, it is anticipated that a contingency plan for leadership succession was already in place, allowing Hamas to reorganize and continue its operations. As a result, while Israel's actions may have weakened Hamas, they have inadvertently set the groundwork for the organization to regroup and persist in its resistance efforts.
Hezbollah's Degraded Capabilities
Hezbollah has endured significant blows recently, notably with the assassination of its leader Hassan Nasrallah, which has strained the organization's cohesion and operational capacity. The loss of key military commands has not only removed experienced leadership but has also destabilized the trust and morale among its members. Trust issues have surfaced due to the perception of Israeli infiltration within their ranks, which poses a serious challenge to Hezbollah's effectiveness as a combatant. While Hezbollah remains intact, the long-term ramifications will depend on its ability to rebuild trust with constituents and effectively respond to ongoing Israeli military campaigns.
The Houthis' Expanding Role
The Houthis are seeking to strengthen their position within the Axis of Resistance by actively engaging in direct action against Israel, thereby portraying themselves as defenders of the Palestinian cause. Their missile launches towards Israel since the outbreak of conflicts in Gaza reflect a strategic move to gain regional legitimacy and support as they transition from a local Yemeni movement to a significant player in broader Arab struggles. Moreover, the Houthis have demonstrated their reliance on Iranian support for military supplies and strategic guidance, solidifying their role within the network. As they consolidate power in Yemen, their actions aimed at undermining Israel contribute to Iran's overarching strategy of expanding its influence in the region.
Durability of the Axis of Resistance
The Axis of Resistance, held together by a shared agenda primarily guided by Iran, is expected to persist despite internal challenges and external pressure. Recent Israeli military efforts have shown that significant components of this network can be incapacitated, but underlying connections and operational strategies remain intact. Embracing a holistic framework to counter these proxies must involve addressing the domestic contexts that fuel their resilience and capabilities. A more nuanced understanding and approach are necessary to effectively disrupt this alliance, moving beyond temporary solutions to tackle the root issues driving the conflict.
Over the past month, Iran and its regional network of allies and proxies - The Axis of Resistance - has suffered a string of dramatic losses and defeats. What is the future of the Axis and its members, and what can the US and its allies do to confront and disrupt this Iranian-led network?
MEI Managing Editor Matthew Czekaj speaks to Randa Slim, Charles Lister, and Fatima Abo Alasrar about Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis - and how the Gaza war has affected standing in the region.
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