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Macro Mondays

#30 - How’s consensus going to be wrongfooted in 2024? Guest: Marvin Barth

Dec 31, 2023
Marvin Barth from Thematic Markets joins the hosts to discuss the consensus outlook for 2024 and the pros/cons of betting against it. Topics include the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, the potential return of Donald Trump, debunking predictions, implications of a globalization shift on credit events, and concerns about future political instability in the US.
53:14

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The West needs to consider its next steps in Ukraine as pouring more money into the country without a clear strategy may not produce desired outcomes.
  • The involvement of Arab neighboring countries in taking responsibility for Gaza's governance offers hope for stability and positive implications for the oil market.

Deep dives

Geopolitical Tensions and the War in Ukraine

Geopolitical tensions and the war in Ukraine have reached a point of stalemate. The initiative in the war has been shifting back and forth between Russia and Ukraine, resulting in a tragic situation with a high number of casualties. Russia currently holds the upper hand, although they have not been able to achieve their ultimate goals of a regime change in Kiev or fully bring Ukraine back under Russian control. This leaves the West with a dilemma regarding their support for Ukraine, as there is no clear vision of how Ukraine can reclaim the territories it has lost. The situation is further complicated by the long game that Putin is playing, content with the current split between the eastern and western parts of Ukraine. The West needs to consider its next steps, as pouring more money into Ukraine without a clear strategy may not produce the desired outcomes.

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