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Russell Napier: Financial Repression Is Back — And Investors Aren’t Ready | #615

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Jan 30, 2026

Guest

Russell Napier

Russell Napier, financial market strategist and monetary historian who founded The Library of Mistakes. He discusses a return to financial repression, why yield chasing is hazardous, shifting monetary regimes and gold as a monetary signal. He warns that technology won’t beat inflation and urges investors to rethink questions and search for unloved, cheaper market opportunities.

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Episode notes

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INSIGHT

Ask The Right Questions At Regime Shifts

Investors ask the wrong questions when regimes change, so finding the right questions matters more than getting perfect answers.
Study financial history to reframe questions about monetary systems, capital flows, and political choices.

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INSIGHT

Five Ways Debt Gets Resolved

High debt levels mean five political options to reduce burdens: austerity, default, high growth, hyperinflation, or financial repression.
The politically likeliest path is financial repression, similar to post-WWII debt reductions.

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ADVICE

Avoid Chasing Low Yields

Avoid chasing yield, especially when risk-free yields fall below about 2%, because you take disproportionate risk.
Target total return (capital gains plus income) rather than yield alone to preserve purchasing power.

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Why asking the right questions matters

01:44 • 3min

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Focus on monetary and capital flows

04:34 • 1min

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Post‑WWII parallels and debt solutions

05:49 • 3min

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Why starting valuations matter

08:26 • 1min

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The danger of yield chasing

09:36 • 4min

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Buy cheap equities and slice markets

13:41 • 5min

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Look beyond obvious winners

18:34 • 2min

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GDP growth ≠ equity returns

20:42 • 2min

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Hire investors familiar with repression

22:41 • 2min

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Inflation vs deflation: slow vs fast declines

24:39 • 5min

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Technology doesn't beat monetary inflation

29:13 • 3min

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Changing global monetary system

31:45 • 5min

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Gold as monetary signal

37:01 • 33sec

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American exceptionalism and foreign savings

37:34 • 2min

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Extrapolation bias and market sentiment

39:26 • 3min

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The Library of Mistakes origin

42:15 • 2min

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Financial education gaps

44:41 • 2min

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The Solid Ground newsletter and approach

46:54 • 3min

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My guest today is Russell Napier, an independent financial market strategist, financial historian, author of The Solid Ground investment report, and founder of the charitable venture The Library of Mistakes.

In today’s episode, Russell explains why investors are asking the wrong questions at a critical turning point in financial history. He how financial repression, shifting monetary regimes, and political priorities are reshaping capital markets. To close, he explains the dangers of yield chasing, why technology won’t defeat inflation, and why gold may be signaling what comes next.

(0:00) Starts

(3:14) Regime change & parallels to post-World War II Europe

(8:06) The search for yield is dangerous

(17:38) The disconnect between GDP growth and equity returns

(23:14) The impact of inflation & deflation on equity valuations

(25:56) Technology doesn't defeat inflation

(30:20) Monetary system changes, gold prices, and American exceptionalism

(37:50) Extrapolation is the opiate of the people

(48:26) Book recommendations

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Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com).

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