Extrapolation bias and market sentiment

Russell and Meb discuss how investors extrapolate recent winners and why European markets remain underappreciated.

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Transcript

Episode notes

My guest today is Russell Napier, an independent financial market strategist, financial historian, author of The Solid Ground investment report, and founder of the charitable venture The Library of Mistakes.

In today’s episode, Russell explains why investors are asking the wrong questions at a critical turning point in financial history. He how financial repression, shifting monetary regimes, and political priorities are reshaping capital markets. To close, he explains the dangers of yield chasing, why technology won’t defeat inflation, and why gold may be signaling what comes next.

(0:00) Starts

(3:14) Regime change & parallels to post-World War II Europe

(8:06) The search for yield is dangerous

(17:38) The disconnect between GDP growth and equity returns

(23:14) The impact of inflation & deflation on equity valuations

(25:56) Technology doesn't defeat inflation

(30:20) Monetary system changes, gold prices, and American exceptionalism

(37:50) Extrapolation is the opiate of the people

(48:26) Book recommendations

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For detailed show notes, click here