Time and Attention 160: Success is a Numbers Game
Nov 25, 2025
Kyle Austin Young, a strategist and author, discusses his book on how success is mathematically approached. He explains the importance of understanding the odds behind goals to avoid likely failures. Using a marathon analogy, he emphasizes the multiplying effect of prerequisites on success probabilities. Young introduces 'probability hacking' as a method to reallocate odds by examining potential negative outcomes. He also shares practical tips for creating success diagrams and designing daily actions to achieve goals more effectively.
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Every Goal Hides Two Numbers
- Goals contain hidden odds: the probability of success and the probability of failure matter.
- If you ignore those odds you often pursue goals you predict will fail despite alignment or desire.
Multiply, Don’t Average, Probabilities
- When success requires multiple prerequisites, multiply probabilities instead of averaging them.
- Small per-step failure chances compound and can shrink overall success odds dramatically.
Think Negative To Improve Odds
- Think negative: list what could go wrong instead of only imagining success.
- Then reduce those bad outcomes to transfer probability toward the desired result.
