Wharton Moneyball Predicting Baseball’s Future: Inside the Zips Projection System
Oct 15, 2025
Dan Szymborski, Senior Writer at FanGraphs and the mastermind behind the ZiPS projection system, dives into the art of forecasting player performance and team dynamics. He compares his projections to weather forecasting, explaining the inherent uncertainties in predicting outcomes. The discussion also touches on unexpected playoff team performances and the nuances of measuring forecast accuracy. Additionally, the conversation shifts to sports analytics in tennis, highlighting a surprising victory by 204th-ranked Valentin Vacherot against elite competitors.
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Dynasty Success Is Joint And Era-Dependent
- The Patriots' success reflects a deep coach-quarterback collaboration over many seasons rather than a single individual's impact.
- Game non-stationarity means past coaching dominance may not transfer to new eras without adaptation.
Quarterback Centrality And Changing Eras
- Adi Wyner emphasizes that coaching success depends heavily on having a great quarterback in football.
- He also notes that rule and style changes in the sport can render past coaching approaches obsolete.
Power Hitting Raises Variance, Hurts Short Series
- The hitting revolution increased strikeouts and three-true-outcome strategies, boosting home runs but raising variance.
- That variance can hurt teams in short playoff series where situational contact and small-ball matter more.