Knowing When to Stop: The Unintended Consequences of Monetary Policy
Mar 19, 2024
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Panel discussion with Raghuram Rajan, Charles Evans, and Randall Kroszner on central bank responsibilities, unintended consequences of monetary policy, implications of altering inflation targets, challenges faced by Chairman Powell, distinguishing actions for financial stability, and unconventional bank stress testing scenarios.
Clear distinctions are needed between financial stability actions and monetary policy decisions.
Stress tests on banks assess resilience against diverse scenarios to enhance preparedness for economic challenges.
Deep dives
Discussion on Monetary Policy Objectives
Panelists engage in a conversation about the objectives of monetary policy, focusing on the responsibilities outlined in the Federal Reserve Act. The discussion involves the importance of promoting monetary and financial conditions to support maximum employment and price stability. Key points raised include the Federal Reserve's inflation objective of 2%, the relevance of anchored inflation expectations, and the challenges of low economic growth impacting real interest rates.
Asset Purchases and Monetary Policy Tools
The conversation delves into the use of asset purchases as a monetary policy tool during times of economic recession or low inflation. Panelists discuss how asset purchases, commonly referred to as quantitative easing, have become a conventional policy approach, highlighting the need for clear distinctions between actions taken for financial stability and those for monetary policy reasons. The challenges of managing large balance sheets and navigating the impacts on interest rates and financial markets are also explored.
Financial Stability and Regulatory Oversight
The panel addresses the importance of financial stability and the role of regulatory authorities in mitigating risks within the financial system. The discussion emphasizes the need for a clear separation between financial stability and monetary policy decisions, drawing comparisons to the Bank of England's model of distinct committees handling each aspect. Recognizing the complexities of interventions during market disruptions and the implications for ongoing monetary policy decisions.
Stress Tests and Economic Scenarios
The conversation shifts towards stress tests conducted on banks and the exploration of various economic scenarios to assess resilience. The panel examines the significance of stress testing approaches, including unconventional scenarios such as extreme interest rate increases, to evaluate the robustness of financial institutions. By engaging in diverse stress test scenarios, regulatory bodies aim to identify vulnerabilities and enhance preparedness for potential economic challenges.
This episode of The Pie features a panel discussion following a talk from Raghuram Rajan, the Katherine Dusak Miller Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at Chicago Booth, about his book "Monetary Policy and Its Unintended Consequences." The panel included Charles Evans, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and was moderated by Randall Kroszner, the Norman R. Bobins Professor of Economics at Chicago Booth and former Governor of the Federal Reserve System.
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