Taiwan Election Results and Implications for Beijing
Jan 25, 2024
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Kharis Templeman, research fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution, breaks down the recent Taiwan elections. Topics include lack of surprises in election results, subdued campaign vibes, China's response, new Legislative Yuan composition, Taiwan People's Party as gatekeeper, and observations from Templeman's time in Taiwan.
The Taiwanese voters lacked enthusiasm for any candidate, indicating disillusionment with the DPP and little confidence in the KMT or the Taiwan People's Party.
China's response to the Taiwan election results was surprisingly muted, suggesting a need for reassessment of its cross-Strait policies given a third DPP president and the limited popularity of Lai.
Deep dives
Taiwan's 2024 Presidential Election Results
Laichingda of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the election with 40% of the vote, followed by Canada Hoyo'i of the KMT with 33% and Kowanja of the Taiwan People's Party with 26%. The polls accurately predicted the outcome, and the election campaign was subdued compared to previous elections.
Foreign Media's Perception vs. Taiwanese Voters' Views
The foreign media framed the election as a choice against China or as a referendum on the incumbent government. However, Taiwanese voters had a more disillusioned view, lacking enthusiasm for any candidate. There was disappointment with the DPP and little confidence in the KMT or the Taiwan People's Party.
Implications for Cross-Strait Relations
China's response to the election results was muted, possibly because they anticipated Lai winning and his moderate victory speech. Lai's limited popularity and the split opposition candidate votes indicate that China's coercive activities and soft engagement strategy towards Taiwan might need reassessment in the long term.
Outlook for the Legislative Yuan
The lack of a majority in the legislature, with the DPP holding 51 seats, KMT holding 52, and the Taiwan People's Party holding 8, gives the Taiwan People's Party significant leverage as a swing vote. The Speaker election is crucial, and alliances between the parties could shape future dynamics in the legislature.
Kharis Templeman, research fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution, returns to ChinaTalk to break down the recent Taiwan elections, held on January 13.
We discuss:
The lack of surprises in the election results, the subdued vibes during the campaign, and contrasts between local perspectives and foreign media narratives.
Why the KMT failed to win the presidency, notwithstanding voter dissatisfaction with the DPP.
China’s surprisingly muted response to the election, and how it may reassess its cross-Strait policies given a third DPP president.
The new composition of the Legislative Yuan, and the strategic position of the Taiwan People’s Party as gatekeeper.
Observations from Kharis’s time in Taiwan during the election season, and the gift of Taiwan’s democratic process.