Journalist Josh Barro joins the podcast to talk about his political hero, Biden. They discuss the economy, stimulus packages, inflation, national debt, and Biden's strategies to address student debt. Other topics include the role of the Fed, the US economy's recovery from Covid, and the intersection of economics and politics.
The negative perception of President Biden's performance is largely influenced by the issue of inflation and negative real wage growth.
There is policy continuity between the Biden and Trump administrations in terms of a protectionist stance towards China, but the broader focus on keeping supply chains within the US raises concerns about potential disruptions in global trade.
Public perception of government debt and deficits has shifted, and while concerns remain, the focus now is on reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio by ensuring slower debt growth than the economy.
Deep dives
Inflation and Real Wage Growth Impact Perception of Biden's Performance
One of the main factors contributing to the negative perception of President Biden's performance is the issue of inflation, which has led to increased prices and negative real wage growth. People are feeling the impact of rising prices without a corresponding increase in their purchasing power. The Biden administration's overstimulation of the economy through fiscal stimulus packages has contributed to this inflationary pressure. Additionally, Biden's lack of a strong base of enthusiastic supporters has prevented him from garnering strong approval ratings. He appeals to a broader range of voters, including those who are dissatisfied with both him and former President Trump. However, it should be noted that among voters who are dissatisfied with both candidates, Biden has a slight edge. Overall, while there may be policy continuity between the Biden and Trump administrations, Biden's low approval ratings can be attributed to the issue of inflation and his inability to generate strong enthusiasm among supporters.
Continuity in Trade Policy and Growing Economic Concerns
There is continuity in trade policy between the Biden and Trump administrations, particularly in terms of a more protectionist stance towards China. The Biden administration has taken aggressive measures to restrict China's economic influence, imposing restrictions on the use of technology linked to US companies and hindering China's advancement in semiconductor production. However, this protectionist approach extends beyond China and has raised concerns about the impact on global trade. The Biden administration's focus on keeping supply chains within the US has led to mixed economic results and potential disruptions in global trade. This shift towards protectionism aligns with a broader shift in the US political landscape, where free trade consensus has eroded. While there may be policy continuity, Biden's low approval ratings indicate that the public's response to his economic policies has been underwhelming.
Public Perception of Debt and Deficits
The perception of government debt and deficits among the public has evolved over time. In the past, there was greater concern about these issues and the potential negative effects they could have on interest rates and economic stability. However, more recently, there has been a shift in thinking driven by economic conditions. When the economy is operating in a tight or sluggish manner, government debt can have a crowding-out effect, reducing private sector activity due to higher interest rates. On the other hand, in times of economic slack, government borrowing and spending can stimulate the economy and lead to growth. The Biden administration's economic policies have been influenced by these shifting perceptions. While the public's concerns about debt remain, the focus has shifted to the current high levels of debt relative to the size of the economy. It is now seen as important to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio by ensuring that the debt grows more slowly than the economy. Overall, public perception of debt and deficits is complex, with the economic conditions and government policies shaping the level of concern.
Challenges for Biden's Approval Ratings
President Biden's low approval ratings can be attributed to a combination of factors. The issue of inflation and negative real wage growth has negatively impacted public perception of his performance. Additionally, Biden's lack of a strong base of enthusiastic supporters has prevented him from garnering higher approval ratings. While there may be policy continuity between the Biden and Trump administrations, public perception and political preferences play a significant role in shaping approval ratings. The challenges faced by the Biden administration, such as managing inflation and addressing concerns about trade policy, contribute to the public's evaluation of his performance. It remains to be seen how his approval ratings may evolve over time and how he will address these challenges.
Concerns about Protectionist Trade Policies
While there may be policy continuity between the Biden and Trump administrations in terms of a protectionist stance towards China, concerns arise regarding broader trade policy. The Biden administration's focus on keeping supply chains within the US has led to mixed economic results and potential disruptions in global trade. Protectionist measures, such as imposing restrictions on imports, may lead to increased prices and reduced consumer choices. However, it is important to strike a balance between protecting domestic industries and maintaining fair international trade practices. The impact of these trade policies on the broader economy and public perception will shape the Biden administration's approach moving forward.
Josh is an old friend, and a business and political journalist. He has worked for Business Insider, the NYT, and New York magazine. He currently runs his own substack called Very Serious, and he cohosts a legal podcast called Serious Trouble, also on Substack.
We talk Biden — Josh’s political hero. You can listen right away in the audio player above (or on the right side of the player, click “Listen On” to add the Dishcast feed to your favorite podcast app — though Spotify sadly doesn’t accept the paid feed). For two clips of our convo — why Biden isn’t polling better despite the improving economy, and the “emotional terrorism” Hunter has wrought on his family — pop over to our YouTube page.
Other topics: growing up with a dad teaching econ at Harvard and a mom raising four kids; studying psych at Harvard before going into banking; monetary policy and the Fed; props to Mnuchin for the CARES Act; how the stimulus in early Covid helped Trump at the polls; the excessive flood of stimulus in 2021 as an overcorrection to 2008; the subsequent spike in inflation; how the US economy recovered from Covid more quickly than the rest of the West; how wages lagged behind inflation after 2020 but recently surpassed it; today’s low unemployment and high consumer spending; slowing inflation; Biden’s new strategy to quash student debt; how national debt is only a problem relative to GDP and growth; how inflation reduces the burden of debt; the lunacy of Modern Monetary Theory; the excess of Trump’s tax cuts; the continuity of his trade policy toward China into the Biden years; Biden’s factory building; his extremism on cultural issues; what happens when he has a McConnell moment; Trump’s crazed dynamism; the new NYT poll on Trump’s chances against Biden; Josh’s jump to Substack; his porn stache; and his reasons for liking America more than Europe.
Browse the Dishcast archive for another conversation you might enjoy (the first 102 episodes are free in their entirety — subscribe to get everything else). Coming up: Michael Moynihan on Orwell and conspiracy theories, Vivek Ramaswamy on his vision for America, Sohrab Ahmari on his forthcoming book, Freddie deBoer, Leor Sapir, Martha Nussbaum, Spencer Klavan, Ian Buruma, Pamela Paul and Matthew Crawford. Please send any guest recs and pod dissent to dish@andrewsullivan.com.
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