In this discussion, Erica D. Lonergan, an Assistant Professor at Columbia University and co-author of "Escalation Dynamics in Cyberspace," dives into the complex world of cyber operations and their impact on international relations. She challenges the prevailing notion that cyberspace inherently escalates conflicts, suggesting it could actually promote de-escalation. The conversation also highlights challenges in understanding cyber evidence, critiques of current methodologies, and the strategic use of cyber tactics as alternatives to military actions, especially in crises like the 2019 Strait of Hormuz.
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insights INSIGHT
Cyber's Limited Escalation Role
Cyber operations are less likely to escalate conflicts than commonly believed.
Secrecy, difficulty, limited costs, and intelligence trade-offs dampen escalation risks.
insights INSIGHT
Cyber as Accommodative Signal
Some cyber operations serve as accommodative signals, helping defuse crises.
They offer a visible yet low-cost way to signal without triggering escalation.
insights INSIGHT
Demand Evidence for Cyber Escalation
Claims of secret cyber escalation lack credibility since escalation should be observable.
Future escalation risks require clearly defined, testable conditions to be credible.
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In Escalation Dynamics in Cyberspace, Erica D. Lonergan and Shawn W. Lonergan present a comprehensive theory explaining the conditions under which cyber operations may lead to escalation. They challenge long-held assumptions about strategic interactions in cyberspace, arguing that it is not as dangerous as conventional wisdom suggests. In some cases, cyber operations could even facilitate the de-escalation of international crises. The authors test their theory against a range of in-depth case studies. They apply their analytical insights to policymaking, making the case that skepticism is warranted about the overall efficacy of employing cyber power for strategic ends. Escalation Dynamics in Cyberspace presents nuanced insights about how cyberspace affects international politics
To what extent do cyberspace operations increase the risks of escalation between nation-state rivals? Scholars and practitioners have been concerned about cyber escalation for decades, but the question remains hotly debated. The issue is increasingly important for international politics as more states develop and employ offensive cyber capabilities, and as the international system is increasingly characterized by emergent multipolarity. In Escalation Dynamics in Cyberspace, Erica D. Lonergan and Shawn W. Lonergan tackle this question head-on, presenting a comprehensive theory that explains the conditions under which cyber operations may lead to escalation. In doing so, they challenge long-held assumptions about strategic interactions in cyberspace, arguing that cyberspace is not as dangerous as the conventional wisdom might suggest. In some cases, cyber operations could even facilitate the de-escalation of international crises. To support their claims, Lonergan and Lonergan test their theory against a range of in-depth case studies, including strategic interactions between the United States and key rivals; a series of case studies of the role of cyber operations in international crises; and plausible future scenarios involving cyber operations during conflict.
The authors then apply their analytical insights to policymaking, making the case that skepticism is warranted about the overall efficacy of employing cyber power for strategic ends. By exploring the role of cyber operations in routine competition, crises, and warfighting, EscalationDynamics in Cyberspace presents nuanced insights about how cyberspace affects international politics
Our guest is Erica D. Lonergan, an Assistant Professor in the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University.
New Books Network 