Lawfare Daily: The Gaza Ceasefire and Where It May Lead
Jan 22, 2025
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Natan Sachs, a Brookings Institution fellow specializing in Middle Eastern politics, joins Dan Byman, a Georgetown professor focused on terrorism, Joel Braunold, an expert in Middle East negotiations, and Dana El-Kurd, a conflict resolution professor. They delve into the recent Gaza ceasefire, discussing its terms, future implications, and the complex politics driving it. The panel explores regional dynamics, U.S. foreign policy challenges, and the crucial role of external verifiers, while shedding light on the reconstruction efforts led by the Emiratis and the evolving Palestinian leadership.
The Gaza ceasefire's structured agreement includes three 42-day phases, addressing humanitarian aid, troop withdrawal, and hostage exchanges.
The transition from Biden to Trump administration has uniquely shaped the ceasefire negotiations, impacting U.S.-Israel dynamics and internal political pressures.
Palestinian leadership fragmentation complicates negotiations, raising concerns about governance and legitimacy in post-ceasefire Gaza amidst low public trust.
Deep dives
Ceasefire Framework Overview
A ceasefire has been initiated in Gaza, consisting of a structured agreement with three distinct phases, each lasting 42 days. The first phase involves the withdrawal of Israeli troops from major population areas in Gaza and the return of certain hostages, primarily vulnerable individuals such as women and children. Additionally, this phase includes the provision of humanitarian aid to Gaza and the release of a number of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. As negotiations for subsequent phases continue, significant attention will be paid to the mechanisms for managing these complex and high-stakes exchanges.
Impact of U.S. Political Dynamics
The transition from the Biden administration to the Trump administration has notably influenced negotiations surrounding the ceasefire and peace framework in Gaza. The collaboration between outgoing Biden officials and incoming Trump representatives highlights the unusual political dynamics at play, which involved pressure being applied directly to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu by Trump allies. This unexpected partnership has raised concerns among key Israeli figures who initially anticipated a hardline stance from the Trump administration. The outcome reflects the shifting leverage and relationships in U.S.-Israel dynamics, particularly in light of Trump's unpredictable foreign policy approach.
Israeli Public Sentiment and Political Consequences
The decision to proceed with the ceasefire deal reflects a significant portion of Israeli public support, despite deep-seated concerns regarding the release of prisoners, many of whom are viewed as dangerous. The emotive impact of hostage-taking on Israeli society cannot be overstated, fostering a desire among citizens to prioritize the return of hostages over the risks associated with concessions. However, this compromise has created friction within Netanyahu's coalition government, with extreme right factions reacting strongly against any perceived weakness. This tension has the potential to destabilize the coalition, reflecting broader fears that any coalition member's shift could create further political crisis.
Challenges Facing Palestinian Leadership
The internal landscape of Palestinian leadership is fragmented, complicating negotiations as groups vie for legitimacy and influence in the context of the ceasefire. Hamas has demonstrated willingness to adjust its previously strict stances, yielding certain demands in light of the ongoing humanitarian crisis. However, the credibility of Palestinian leadership remains low, with widespread public support favoring direct local representation over traditional actors like the Palestinian Authority. This raises questions about who will effectively govern post-ceasefire Gaza and how this might affect future negotiations and humanitarian efforts.
Potential Scenarios and Future Implications
As the ceasefire unfolds, various potential scenarios could dictate the trajectory of Gaza's political and security environment. One possibility is a prolonged period of relative calm, wherein neither side reinvigorates conflict, leading to continued humanitarian suffering but stability. Conversely, ongoing skirmishes may re-ignite tensions, with external actors like Iran potentially exacerbating instability. Ultimately, the capacity for leaders on both sides to navigate this delicate situation will determine whether progress can be made or if the cycle of violence will re-emerge, highlighting the need for cautious management of regional dynamics.
For today’s episode, Lawfare Senior Editor Scott R. Anderson sat down with a panel of leading experts to discuss the recent ceasefire in Gaza, including: Natan Sachs, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution; Dan Byman, Professor at Georgetown University and Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies; Joel Braunold, Managing Director of the S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace; and Dr. Dana El-Kurd, Professor at the University of Richmond.
They discussed the terms of the ceasefire, who deserves credit for bringing it into place, what factors may contribute to its ultimate success or failure, and where it is likely to lead in the weeks and months to come.
