Simon Erickson, the CEO of 7investing and a savvy market analyst, shares a striking about-face on Celsius Holdings. He discusses the critical red flags that shifted his view from bullish to bearish. Key topics include the challenges Celsius faces in a competitive energy drink market, uncertainties around ownership after a major investor’s passing, and implications of Pepsi's reduced orders. With changing consumer preferences in the mix, Erickson highlights why long-term investors should reconsider Celsius' future prospects.
The host's transition from a bullish to a bearish outlook on Celsius Holdings highlights the importance of ongoing diligence in investing decisions.
Concerns over high ownership concentration by the DeSantis family and insider selling activities contribute to investor unease regarding Celsius's future prospects.
Deep dives
Shift in Investment Perspective on Celsius Holdings
The host experienced a significant change in viewpoint regarding Celsius Holdings, transitioning from a bullish stance to a bearish outlook. Initially optimistic about the company's growth, recent declines in its stock price—down 40% since the beginning of 2024 and 50% over the past year—prompted this reevaluation. This change comes despite Celsius's market share as the third-largest energy drink provider in the United States, trailing behind industry giants Red Bull and Monster Energy. The host highlights concerns regarding the company's sustainability in the competitive energy drink market, particularly against this backdrop of declining stock performance.
Concerns Over Ownership Concentration and Insider Trading
A significant concern arises from the high concentration of ownership within Celsius Holdings, primarily in the hands of the DeSantis family following the death of founder Carl DeSantis. With over 54% ownership, the family's intentions for the company remain unclear, raising risks about the future direction of Celsius. Additionally, the insider trading activity has raised red flags; executives have reportedly sold nearly $64 million worth of stock, with minimal buying activity among insiders. The lack of confidence about their commitment to Celsius is underscored by their selling behaviors, which contribute to a growing unease among investors.
Dependency on Pepsi and Questions About Future Growth
Celsius's partnership with Pepsi has been touted as a significant growth driver, yet reliance on this distributor presents considerable risks. Pepsi accounts for almost 60% of Celsius's total sales, but the absence of contractual obligations binding Pepsi to this partnership raises concerns about the potential for abrupt changes in distribution support. Recently, Pepsi indicated a future reduction in orders by up to 30%, sparking doubts regarding Celsius's sales momentum. This situation highlights the fragile nature of Celsius's growth strategy and raises important questions about brand sustainability amid shifting consumer preferences and market dynamics.
Sometimes in investing, it's important to change your mind.
Such is the case for Celsius Holdings (Nasdaq: CELH). This energy drink company represented one of our highest-conviction ideas in August.
Yet further diligence revealed multiple red flags, which 7investing CEO Simon Erickson considers to be deal-breakers for long-term investors.
In today's podcast episode, he describes several of those warnings signs and why he's turned from bullish to bearish about Celsius' future opportunity.
Note: This podcast mentions 54% ownership for the DeSantis family, which is an incorrect number. Due to overlap between the beneficial ownership of three family trust funds, the actual family ownership stake is closer to 23%.
To learn more about our long-term investing approach and to see all of our official stock market recommendations, visit 7investing.com.
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