The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing Tobias Carlisle - Warren Buffett, Sun Tzu and The Ancient Art of Risk-Taking | #600
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Oct 7, 2025 
Tobias Carlisle, founder of Acquirers Funds and author of "Soldier of Fortune," shares insights on value investing by blending Warren Buffett's strategies with Sun Tzu's timeless wisdom. He discusses the current small-cap landscape, macroeconomic signals, and notable case studies like Buffett's investments in General Re and Japan's trading houses. Emphasizing patience and strategic thinking, Tobias explains avoiding FOMO and highlights the power of waiting for asymmetric opportunities in investing, ensuring that financial decisions align with psychological insights.
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Small Caps Offer Mean Reversion Opportunity
- Small caps have lagged since 2011–2015 and now trade at a multiple discount despite historically higher earnings growth.
- Tobias expects mean reversion where smalls regain earnings growth and multiple re-rating over time.
Multiple Metrics Show Market Is Expensive
- Multiple valuation metrics, like CAPE and market-cap-to-GDP, all signal historically high valuations today.
- Tobias and Meb argue different metrics converge on the same conclusion: market is expensive by many measures.
Avoiding Ruin Is Central To Buffett's Strategy
- Sun Tzu and Buffett share a core idea: avoid ruin because zeros destroy compounding.
- Tobias frames Buffett's capital allocation as a Sun Tzu-like focus on survival and downside protection.
