Managing FOMO and Base-Rate Thinking

Tobias examines investor FOMO, social pressure, and using base rates to avoid chasing low-probability big wins.

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Today’s guest is Tobias Carlisle, founder of Acquirers Funds and serves as portfolio manager of the firm’s deep value strategy. He’s just released a book called Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett, Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk-Taking.

In today’s episode, Toby starts by discussing the current valuation landscape and the challenge for small cap investors. Then he explores the intersection of Warren Buffett’s investment philosophy with Sun Tzu’s teachings. He walks through notable investment case studies, including General Re, Burlington Northern and Japanese trading houses.

The case studies all convey the significance of patience, strategic thinking, and the pursuit of asymmetric opportunities in investing, while also addressing the psychological aspects that influence investor behavior.

(0:34) Introduction of Tobias Carlisle

(1:32) Value investing in current market conditions

(4:04) Market outlook and valuation differences across cap-sizes

(10:03) Jay Powell's recent comments

(13:57) Toby's new book

(19:54) The Gen Re investment

(26:33) Buffett's investment in Japan and Apple

(32:57) Buffett's investment principles and managing FOMO

(42:30) Comparing low volatility and high beta stocks

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