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US Rates -Trade policy, the Fed, and implications for rates markets
Jan 24, 2025
Michael Hanson, a Senior Economist at J.P. Morgan Global Research, joins Phoebe White to dissect the latest shifts in U.S. trade policy under the new administration. They explore the potential repercussions of a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports, including GDP uncertainties and retaliatory risks. The duo also discusses the Federal Reserve's independence amid political pressures and its implications for inflation markets. Insights on yield curve dynamics reveal expectations of flattening as trade negotiations evolve.
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Quick takeaways
- The new administration's trade policy indicates a temporary halt on tariff increases, fostering a negotiation-oriented atmosphere affecting market uncertainties.
- Concerns over Federal Reserve independence suggest ongoing tensions as economic indicators signal a stable U.S. economy, influencing rate decisions and market expectations.
Deep dives
Impact of Tariffs on Trade Policy
The discussion highlights the current status and future implications of tariffs under the new administration, particularly concerning Canada and Mexico. Initially expected tariff increases on these countries were postponed, revealing a potential window for negotiation rather than immediate implementation. Despite the lack of new tariffs, the administration's focus on trade policy suggests that discussions around trade deficits, unfair practices, and associated reviews will continue to unfold in the coming months. This situation creates an atmosphere of uncertainty for markets, as participants must brace for possible tariff actions while balancing the projected economic impact.
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Discover
highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode