Monetary Matters with Jack Farley 20% Decline In Stocks By First Quarter 2025? Felix Zulauf on a Bubble In S&P 500, Yen Carry Trade, and Bond Market Rollercoaster
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Dec 12, 2024 Felix Zulauf, a renowned macro investor and founder of Zulauf Consulting, shares his insights on market trends and economic forecasts. He predicts a significant correction in the S&P 500 by early 2025, sparking concerns over the Yen carry trade and its potential impact on liquidity. Zulauf discusses the precarious balance in bond yields amidst a secular bear market, alongside the outlook for commodities like oil and gold. He emphasizes the complex interplay of tariffs, economic disparities, and the unpredictable ride that 2025 may bring for investors.
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Tulips at the Roundtable
- Mario Gabelli brought tulips to the Barron's Roundtable in January 1999, a year before the market top.
- This anecdote highlights the difficulty of timing market peaks, even for experts.
Stock Market Bubble
- Felix Zulauf calls the current U.S. stock market a bubble.
- He acknowledges that bubbles can grow bigger and last longer than expected.
Market Correction Trigger and Prediction
- Zulauf suggests the market correction trigger will be related to the dollar-yen relationship and global liquidity.
- He predicts a 1,000-point S&P 500 correction to around 5,000 in the first quarter of 2025.