Lead-Lag Live

Robin Wigglesworth on Bond Market Volatility, European Financial Optimism, and Central Bank Roles in Market Stability

Dec 28, 2024
Robin Wigglesworth, editor of FT Alphaville and author of a book on index funds, delves into the world of bond market volatility and its implications. He discusses the recent turbulence in U.S. Treasury yields and how bonds serve as indicators of systemic risks. The conversation highlights the disparity between U.S. and European markets, particularly in the context of potential political changes, and raises concerns over inflation and private credit. Optimism surfaces in Europe and Japan, hinting at shifting financial landscapes despite historic challenges.
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INSIGHT

Treasury Volatility Concerns

  • Mark Zandy worries about US Treasury yield volatility.
  • Daily swings of 10-20 bps are concerning compared to historical 2-3 bps movements.
INSIGHT

Bond Market vs. Equity Market

  • Bond markets can be smarter than equity markets, sometimes showing systemic risks earlier.
  • Current bond markets might be too optimistic about inflation and rate outcomes.
INSIGHT

Debt Default and Treasury Rally

  • A US debt default could oddly be bullish for treasuries as the ultimate safe haven.
  • Inflation significantly impacts fixed income value, potentially affecting equities negatively.
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