The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show 348. Office Origination, Stagflation, Job Data Misinformation & Retail Earnings Fluctuation
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Aug 22, 2025 This discussion dives into economic concerns like stagflation and mixed job market trends. It highlights the complexities of retail sales, with notable fluctuations in major retailers' earnings. Exciting developments in New York City include J.P. Morgan's opulent new headquarters and a surge in office visits. The challenges of converting office spaces to residential use are explored, alongside insights into office origination trends across key markets. Recent developments also reveal the implications of a New Hampshire mall loan entering special servicing.
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Conflicting Macro Signals Raise Stagflation Risk
- Markets face conflicting signals: hotter PPI but muted consumer inflation and mixed retail earnings.
- This uncertainty makes rate and growth outlooks highly unsettled, raising stagflation concerns.
Youth Unemployment Signals Slower Growth
- Stephen flags rising unemployment among young cohorts as a growth concern amid persistent price pressures.
- He argues this weak prime-age entry into work plus tariffs increases stagflation risk.
Validate Public Data With Local Property Data
- Question the headline numbers and validate with on‑the‑ground data before acting.
- Use owner-provided datasets like TREP to cross-check public series with real property signals.