Macro Voices MacroVoices #515 Rory Johnston: Why Trump is Keeping The Oil Price High
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Jan 15, 2026 In this discussion, Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context and an expert in the oil market, breaks down the complexities of crude oil dynamics. He highlights how Trump's sanctions have kept prices elevated by constraining supply, particularly concerning Venezuelan resources. Rory analyzes the geopolitical implications of U.S. resource strategies, including the challenges of restoring Venezuelan oil production. He also navigates the recent movements in oil prices, assessing whether they stem from real market changes or are fueled by geopolitical narratives.
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Sanctions Are Propping Up Oil Prices
- Rory Johnston argues Trump has been bullish for oil by enforcing sanctions that remove supply from the market.
- Sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia have kept barrels on water or in storage, tightening prompt markets despite on-paper surplus.
Venezuela’s ‘50M Barrels’ Is Overstated
- Physical Venezuelan barrels near the coast total about 10–15 million, not the 30–50 million Trump cited.
- Much of the remaining Venezuelan volume is in transit or tied up onshore and can only temporarily augment supply if released.
Venezuela Recovery Is Slow And Costly
- Quick recovery of Venezuelan production is possible from shut-in bounce, but long-term growth needs years and massive investment.
- Low-hanging gains (200–300 kb/d) may arrive in 12–18 months; scaling to +1 mb/d likely takes 3–5+ years.