Turn up the PA: the last in our swing-state series
Nov 1, 2024
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Adam O'Neill, The Economist’s Washington correspondent, dives into Pennsylvania's pivotal role in the upcoming elections, highlighting its crucial electoral votes and shifting demographics. Avantika Churkoti, Global business correspondent, explores the evolving influencer economy, discussing the shift from mega influencers to niche personalities. The podcast also touches on the surprising resurgence of goth culture among Gen Z and its unexpected ties to the political landscape, showcasing how trends in social media can influence voter behavior.
Pennsylvania's political landscape is deeply divided, with educated voters leaning Democratic while working-class white voters tend to favor Republicans, creating a highly competitive battleground.
The effectiveness of grassroots campaigning and voter mobilization strategies will be crucial for both candidates in swaying undecided voters as Election Day approaches.
Deep dives
The Swing State Dynamics of Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania is a critical swing state in the upcoming presidential election, holding the most electoral college votes at 19. Historically, the state has proven to be a bellwether; about 90% of the time, the candidate who wins Pennsylvania goes on to win the presidency. The political landscape shows a shift with highly educated voters leaning Democratic, while more working-class white people favor Republicans, resulting in a competitive battleground. Campaigns have heavily invested in advertisements to sway voters, appealing to their interests in key issues such as immigration, reproductive rights, and the economy.
Voter Concerns and Economic Messaging
Voters in Pennsylvania are primarily focused on economic issues, particularly inflation and rising prices, influencing their perceptions of the candidates. Many constituents blame the Biden administration for their financial struggles, often expressing a belief that they would fare better under Trump. In response, Kamala Harris is trying to maintain a disciplined message while also addressing economic concerns, but her situation as vice president complicates her positioning. Meanwhile, Trump strategically utilizes a narrative highlighting positive economic memories from his presidency, although distractions from his behavior could undermine his campaign.
The Role of Ground Game in Election Outcomes
The effectiveness of each campaign's ground operation is pivotal as Election Day approaches. The Harris campaign appears organized, focusing efforts on suburban areas and rural outreach, while Trump's campaign relies on a smaller grassroots network. The mechanics of encouraging voter turnout through direct engagement, such as calls or door-knocking, are crucial in a tightly contested state like Pennsylvania. Consequently, the candidates' ability to mobilize supporters and address undecided voters may significantly influence the election results.
Our series concludes with an examination of the state with the most electoral-college votes: Pennsylvania. It is practically a must-win for either candidate—and it is on a knife-edge. As more and more people become influencers, fame is becoming more fickle and the entire economics of influencers is shifting (10:43). And how Gen Z is resurrecting goth culture (17:25).