A Stratechery, Sharp Tech, and Sharp China Crossover on the Chip Ban, Taiwan, TikTok and More
Nov 16, 2023
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Tech analyst Ben Thompson, author Bill Bishop, and commentator Andrew Sharp discuss topics such as the chip ban, China's response, TikTok's ban, the efficiency of authoritarian government, and the upcoming apex meeting in San Francisco. They explore the impact on tech companies, the US-China relationship, and the strategic benefits of the American system.
China's motivation to de-Americanize its tech stack has been accelerated by the chip ban, leading to a focus on building indigenous technology.
China aims to rely less on US equipment and resources, dominating the trailing edge market and threatening US leadership in various domains.
The tension between the US and China over tech regulations has impacted high-flying tech companies, with Huawei emerging as a significant winner in developing their own AI chips and framework.
Deep dives
The Chip Ban and China's Long-term Ambitions
The podcast discusses the chip ban as the biggest story related to China over the past year. The speakers highlight how this ban has accelerated China's motivation to de-Americanize its tech stack and focus on building its own indigenous technology. They mention the risks and challenges of pursuing both leading-edge and trailing-edge technologies simultaneously and how this could affect China's long-term ambitions. Additionally, they touch upon the leaks and backdoors present in the current controls and the need for China to push forward to dominate the market and threaten US leadership.
De-Americanizing Technology and China's Motivation
The speakers delve into the concept of de-Americanizing technology and how China aims to rely less on US equipment and resources. They discuss the potential benefits for China in terms of dominating the trailing edge market, undercutting US tech pricing, and threatening US leadership in various domains. They also mention the challenge of building their own technology stack and mastering the production of advanced chips using Chinese equipment. The speakers emphasize that China's strong motivation and resources could lead to a faster pace of development and a more successful outcome in the long run.
Concerns around TikTok and the Shift in Vibes
The podcast touches on the concerns surrounding TikTok and the shift in vibes regarding a potential ban. They highlight the risks associated with TikTok's data access and the potential interference in elections, considering the platform's connection to the Chinese government. The speakers discuss the influence of lobbying efforts and political considerations on the current stance towards TikTok. They note the disagreement between Republicans and Democrats, with Republicans expressing more concern about banning TikTok and Democrats seeing it as a valuable platform for reaching young voters. The podcast concludes with doubts about a ban happening before the next election.
US-China tech tensions and the impact on high-flying tech companies
The podcast episode discusses how the tension between the US and China over tech regulations has impacted high-flying tech companies. The speaker highlights that the tough controls imposed by the US on Chinese technology seemed difficult to argue against, as it looked like China was setting the standard. Companies with good government affairs teams had better outcomes than those who took a more direct approach against the government. The tension between the US and China has empowered the skeptics of US-China dependence and aligns with Xi Jinping's broader view of a struggle with the United States. Despite US restrictions, it appears that Huawei may be the biggest winner, gaining support and developing their own AI chips and framework to challenge NVIDIA's ecosystem.
The implications for AI development and the long-term impact
The podcast episode delves into the implications of the chip ban on AI development and the long-term impact on tech companies and the US-China relationship. China is portrayed as being ahead in terms of AI regulation, but the data structure and censorship limitations impact the quality of data sets and open-source models. The speaker also notes how the US administration wants to establish a mechanism to discuss AI and potentially avoid its use in nuclear command and control. The conversation around AI ties into the broader tech restrictions and the view that China seeks relief to fill the technology gap. While short-term stabilization in US-China relations is possible, the long-term impact and the potential for military applications of AI remain areas of concern.
After one year of Sharp Tech and Sharp China, a summit with Ben Thompson, Bill Bishop and Andrew Sharp to discuss podcasting, the chip ban, the US-China relationship and beyond.