The Science of Politics The past and future of polling
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Jul 20, 2022 G. Elliott Morris, a data journalist at The Economist and author of 'Strength in Numbers', dives into the complexities and evolution of polling. He discusses the significant challenges polling faces today, including low response rates and the impact of inaccuracies in recent elections. Morris emphasizes the importance of adapting methodologies for a more accurate public opinion representation. He also highlights the historical contributions of polling pioneers and the vital role polls play in shaping our understanding of democracy, urging a more critical approach to interpreting data.
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Polling's Democratic Role
- Polling serves vital democratic functions beyond election prediction, revealing public priorities and concerns.
- Understanding these broader uses helps appreciate polling's importance despite its imperfections.
Lower Your Precision Expectations
- Polls have higher error margins now due to lower response rates and partisan non-response.
- We should double traditional margins of error and exercise caution interpreting close results.
Emil Herja: Polling Pioneer
- Emil Herja, a lesser-known early pollster, predicted FDR's 1932 victory with near perfect accuracy.
- He innovated key polling methods blending statistical sampling with political canvassing.
