The Morning Brief Iran On The Edge
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Jan 16, 2026 Strategic analyst Kabir Taneja, Deputy Director at the Observer Research Foundation, delves into Iran's deepening crisis. He explains how systemic failures, sparked by external attacks on nuclear sites and a severe water shortage, have led to unprecedented public dissent. Taneja analyzes Iran's waning geopolitical influence as Israel has neutralized its proxies, causing alarm in neighboring states. He also highlights the risks to global oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz and the potential economic implications for India, painting a picture of an unpredictable and cornered regime.
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Multiple Shocks Collided In Iran
- Iran's crisis stems from overlapping shocks: loss of perceived invincibility, water shortages, and political fragmentation.
- These combined grievances transformed economic protests into bold political dissent against the regime.
Water Shortage Sparked Urban Anger
- Tehran faced a severe water shortage last autumn that directly strained citizen trust in the government.
- That local crisis catalyzed broader protests by showing the regime's failure to deliver basic necessities.
State Weakness Will Change Regime Behavior
- The Iranian state is weaker now due to external pressure and internal crises, even if it survives the current unrest.
- That weakness will change how the government perceives and responds to recurring protests going forward.