SI285: Elections Ahead & What this Mean for Investors ft. Cem Karsan

14 snips

Mar 2, 2024

Discussion on asset performance balance shifting, impact of 0DTE on markets, significance of 2024 elections, rise of meme stocks, potential U.S. power shifts, and implications of huge debt. Exploration of trend following in equity markets, economic effects of 2024 U.S. election, market dynamics pre-election cycles, and geopolitical power shifts for 2025.

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INSIGHT

Election Year and the Fed

The Federal Reserve's choices regarding interest rates are heavily influenced by election years.
This connection between elections and monetary policy is a crucial factor to consider.

INSIGHT

Private Credit Risk

Private credit's popularity is a symptom of excessive malinvestment due to prolonged low interest rates.
If markets revert or the trend continues, substantial losses in private credit could materialize.

INSIGHT

Tech Positioning Reversal

Tech positioning has likely reversed from late 2022 due to decaying call options and sector rotation.
This relative weakness in tech, coupled with broadening market performance, may persist.

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Today, Cem Karsan joins us to discuss a wide range or really important topics. Inspired by questions from listeners we discuss how the balance in asset performance is shifting and how 0DTE impact markets. We also discuss how 2024 will contain more inportant elections than any other year in recent history and how we foresee the U.S. election will play out, the state of flows and the rise of a new meme stock. Lastly, we discuss whether the U.S. is beginning to loose the exorbitant privilege due to their huge debt and the potential power shifts that can happen in the nearby future.

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Episode TimeStamps:

01:06 - What has been on our radar recently?

05:13 - Industry performance update

08:01 - Q1, Rick: Is positioning in tech under or over weighted?

11:23 - How 0DTE impact markets

18:08 - Is the VIX broken?

24:03 - 2024 - The year of elections

30:19 - Republicans or democrats - does it even matter to the markets?

32:09 - The return of the Kennedy's

39:15 - What is going on with flows?

47:55 - The rise of meme stocks

52:41 - How the U.S. debt will impact the dollar

59:59 - A wild ride for Japan

01:05:54 - Thanks for listening

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