Eurodollar University BREAKING: Jobs Report Just Dropped — Here's What You Need to Know
May 5, 2025
Steve Van Metre, a regular contributor known for his insightful economic analyses, dives into the recent jobs report that raised more questions than answers. He discusses the troubling creation of 177,000 jobs and the precarious state of the economy, questioning if the labor market is 'bad enough' rather than 'good enough.' The disparity between hard and soft job market data presents a grim consumer sentiment, while employers grapple with hiring skilled labor post-pandemic. Van Metre also analyzes the sharp decline in manufacturing and the potential impacts of tariffs on employment trends.
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Shifting Economic Data Narrative
- Economic data has shifted from 'not good enough' to 'not bad enough.'
- April payroll of 177,000 is weak and likely overstated after revisions.
Tariff Impact on Hiring
- Hiring surged late last year due to tariff fears, then slowed.
- April's 177,000 jobs signal weakness, not resilience in labor market.
Soft vs Hard Labor Data
- Soft data reflects perceptions of a downturn before hard layoffs occur.
- Employers delay layoffs but also pause new hiring, creating labor market stagnation.