Israel-Hamas conflict raises concerns about potential oil disruption

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas has raised concerns about a potential disruption to oil supplies. Iran's foreign minister made an unconvincing claim about an oil embargo on Israel, causing a temporary spike in oil prices. However, analysts believe that the risk of an actual embargo is limited, as Iran does not sell oil to Israel and there is no appetite for another oil embargo within OPEC or the broader Middle East. The crisis has also prompted speculation about the US tightening restrictions on Iran's oil exports. While this is a possibility, the US may be deterred by the operational constraints, the potential impact on the broader market, and the risk of provoking both China and Iran. OPEC's response to any disruption in oil supplies remains uncertain, as the recent trend has seen Iran increasing its exports while Saudi Arabia pursues a normalization of relations with Israel. Overall, the extent and duration of the conflict will play a crucial role in determining the medium-term impact on oil markets.