At Any Rate Global Commodities: Base metals are back from the brink but not fully in the clear
May 16, 2025
The discussion kicks off with the impact of eased U.S.-China trade tensions on base metals, revealing a temporary optimism. Market predictions highlight a possibly bright near-term for copper, yet caution is expressed about demand drops as 2025 progresses. Aluminum prices take center stage, influenced by auto sector demands and tariff dynamics. As uncertainty looms, experts foresee a potential price decline later in the year, emphasizing the need for careful monitoring of market trends.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Tariff Reprieve Boosts Near-Term Demand
- The US-China 90-day tariff reprieve boosts near-term copper and base metals demand forecast by about 14-15% for Q2 2025.
- However, a bearish market correction is likely in 2H 2025 due to demand pull-forward effects.
Chinese Demand Growth Unsustainable
- Chinese refined copper demand surged to 6% year-over-year growth in Q1 2025 but is expected to slow to 1.7% for the rest of the year.
- This results in 2.6% average full-year copper demand growth for China, indicating unsustainable momentum.
Copper Stock Reversal Signals Cooling
- Chinese copper stocks showed sharp destocking in April but recently reversed with a large onshore build.
- New orders for copper semi-finished products are weakening, signaling a cooling supply chain and demand.