Scott R. Anderson, a Senior Editor with foreign policy expertise, and Daniel Byman, a Foreign Policy Editor focused on security, delve into the escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. They discuss Israel's recent military actions, including targeting Hezbollah leadership and using explosive devices disguised as pagers. The conversation highlights the complexities of military strategies, ethical dilemmas, and the unpredictable nature of conflict. They also examine U.S. military dynamics and its role in this intricate geopolitical landscape.
Israel's recent military operations aim to weaken Hezbollah's capabilities and disrupt their communication networks, potentially shifting deterrence strategies.
Hezbollah's calculated response to escalating Israeli attacks reflects its strategic caution, emphasizing the need to avoid a full-scale war in Lebanon.
Geopolitical dynamics, including U.S. military positioning and Iranian influence, complicate the already fragile balance between Israel and Hezbollah.
Deep dives
Escalation of Israeli Airstrikes
A significant escalation of Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon has targeted Hezbollah with the intention of weakening its military capabilities. The Israeli military has executed extensive operations against Hezbollah's leadership, military positions, and communication devices, suggesting a strategic shift in its approach. By concentrating attacks on various fronts, Israel aims to deter Hezbollah from escalating the conflict further. Despite these heavy strikes, there are concerns that this strategy could still lead to unintentional escalation and conflicts.
Hezbollah's Calculated Response
Hezbollah has maintained a calibrated response to rising tensions to avoid full-scale war with Israel, despite ongoing military exchanges. The group has sought to show solidarity with Hamas while limiting its own military actions due to the potential devastation that large-scale conflict could bring, especially given the dire situation in Lebanon. Historically, Hezbollah has been careful to avoid excessive retaliation that could endanger its position or lead to disastrous consequences. This strategic caution is now being tested as Israeli operations continue to intensify.
Operation Against Hezbollah's Communication Networks
Israel's latest military operation involved a strategy to disrupt Hezbollah's communication networks by planting explosives in devices like pagers and walkie-talkies, which were used by the group’s fighters. Reports indicate that these devices were purposely equipped with explosives and sold to Hezbollah, intending to create a 'kill switch' that could be activated during a major military campaign. The operation resulted in significant casualties, raising concerns over the legality of such tactics and their implications on civilian safety. This initiative reflects Israel's changing military calculus post-October 7, potentially signaling a new method of deterrence against Hezbollah.
Risk of All-Out War
Current discussions estimate a concerning increase in the likelihood of all-out war between Hezbollah and Israel, with assessments now suggesting a 50% chance of escalation from previous predictions of lower odds. Both parties seem to be on edge, with Israel's repeated military operations prompting Hezbollah's need for a dignified response. The delicate balance that both sides maintain may hinge on domestic political pressures and the broader implications for regional stability. Uncertainty remains over whether Hezbollah can manage the internal and external pressures to escalate while also avoiding catastrophic consequences for Lebanon.
Impact of Regional Politics and U.S. Involvement
The complex geopolitical context has added layers of unpredictability to the conflict, notably with U.S. military assets positioned nearby as a deterrent. The Biden administration appears cautious about intervening directly but may provide intelligence support to Israel in the face of Iranian involvement. The fear of increased Iranian influence or regional instability prompts a careful balancing act for Israel to avoid triggering a wider conflict. This intricate relationship underscores that the dynamics of power between Hezbollah, Israel, and the United States could significantly shape future developments in the region.
Israel and Hezbollah seem to be headed for a major war. Over the past several weeks, Israel has taken a series of escalatory steps along its northern border, targeting major Hezbollah figures, blowing up pagers used by thousands of Hezbollah operatives, and—most recently—hitting targets all over southern Lebanon associated with Hezbollah. Will it lead to all-out war? Lawfare’s Editor-in-Chief, Benjamin Wittes, sat down with Senior Editor Scott R. Anderson and Foreign Policy Editor Daniel Byman to talk over the latest developments between Israel and its most capable military foe.
