Logan Mohtashami on how many homes will take price cuts this spring
Jan 11, 2024
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Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami discusses the forecasted decrease in price cut percentages this spring, the dynamics between house prices, price cuts, and demand in the housing market, the abnormal inventory cycle after 2020, the variation in price cuts and home prices across different markets, and the potential impact of a red sea situation, inflation, banking crisis, geopolitical surprises, and high interest rates on the housing market.
The percentage of homes taking price cuts is expected to decrease this spring, indicating a stronger housing market driven by increasing demand and a better seller-buyer equilibrium.
Abnormal inventory cycles have been observed in recent years, with a delay in the seasonal bottom and hope for a return to a more normal pattern in 2024, emphasizing the importance of sufficient supply to alleviate concerns about housing affordability and stress for sellers.
Deep dives
Fewer homes expected to take price cuts this spring
According to lead analyst Logan Motorshami, the percentage of homes taking price cuts is expected to decrease this spring, indicating a stronger housing market. Over the past year, the price cut percentages have been declining and are projected to fall below 2023 levels in the upcoming spring due to lower mortgage rates and a more stable marketplace for sellers. While the price cut percentages vary across different markets, Motorshami emphasizes that this trend is driven by increasing demand and a better seller-buyer equilibrium.
Factors influencing the housing market in 2024
Motorshami highlights several factors that could shape the housing market in 2024. He mentions how the cost of insurance and property taxes, particularly in states like Texas and Florida, can impact the market. While the costs may be manageable for some homeowners and renters, they can create challenges for retirees and those with mortgages. Motorshami also mentions the possibility of a federal government plan to address climate change and promote efficient housing against worsening weather patterns. Additionally, he discusses the potential impact of geopolitical events and the response of the Federal Reserve to economic variables like credit events and interest rates.
Anomalies in seasonal inventory patterns
Motorshami identifies abnormal inventory cycles in recent years. Following 2020's pandemic-related disruptions, the seasonal bottom in weekly active inventory data has been occurring later in the year. This delay in the seasonal bottom can lead to a decrease in inventory during the typically stronger spring buying season. However, Motorshami expresses hope for a return to a more normal inventory pattern in 2024, with a seasonal bottom in January and subsequent increases in new listings and supply. He emphasizes the importance of sufficient supply to provide more choices and alleviate concerns about housing affordability and stress for sellers.
On today’s episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami about the percentage of homes taking a price cut this spring and why he thinks that number will fall. The two also discuss inventory and mortgage rates.
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