Macro Voices MacroVoices #455 Daniel Lacalle: Is The Trump Trade Over?
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Nov 21, 2024 Daniel Lacalle, Tress's chief economist and best-selling author, joins the conversation to dissect the evolving landscape of the Trump Trade. He dives into the implications of geopolitical tensions on the U.S. dollar and discusses the resilience of Europe amidst energy challenges. The episode also covers crude oil price dynamics, market trends for precious metals, and the integration of cryptocurrencies into the U.S. monetary system. Lacalle offers valuable insights into future market predictions while navigating the complexities of today's economy.
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Trump Trades Exhaustion
- The "Trump trades" (Dollar North, Gold South) may be overextended and require reevaluation.
- Market complacency, especially in equities, warrants caution given the approaching earnings season.
Dollar Strength
- The US dollar's recovery began before Trump's election, driven by persistent inflation and weakening growth in the Euro area and Japan.
- The dollar's strength relative to major trading partners suggests further upside potential for the DXY.
Navigating Geopolitical Risk
- Unwind long Euro trades, buy gold, and consider energy sector positions given geopolitical tensions.
- Reduce European bank and industrial exposure.