The Lawfare Podcast Lawfare Archive: The Soleimani Strike Two Years Later
Sep 22, 2024
Suzanne Maloney, an Iran specialist at Brookings, and Dan Byman, a terrorism expert, delve into the aftermath of the U.S. strike on Qassem Soleimani. They discuss whether the anticipated backlash from Iran was overstated and analyze the unexpected reductions in U.S.-Iran hostilities. The experts explore Iran's strategic restraint, the complexities of military operations in the region, and the longer-term implications for U.S. interests in Iraq, highlighting the need for new diplomatic approaches amid evolving geopolitical tensions.
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No Massive Iranian Retaliation
- The feared massive Iranian retaliation and escalation after Soleimani's killing did not happen.
- The worst-case scenarios of widespread conflict and terrorism were not realized in two years.
Iraq Interests Hit Hard
- Soleimani's killing substantially degraded U.S. ability to operate in Iraq and hurt U.S. influence.
- The conflict became overly U.S.-Iran focused, neglecting Iraq's key role.
Soleimani's Regional Role
- Soleimani was a charismatic and powerful Iranian commander shaping regional influence.
- His assassination marked a major escalation and brought U.S. and Iran to the brink of war.