a16z Podcast Is AI Slowing Down? Nathan Labenz Says We're Asking the Wrong Question
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Oct 14, 2025 
Nathan Labenz, host of The Cognitive Revolution and AI analyst, joins Erik Torenberg to tackle whether AI progress is truly slowing or if our expectations are just shifting. They dissect the nuances of GPT-5's launch and the challenges in measuring AI advancements. Labenz emphasizes the shift from raw capability to reasoning and the potential of multimodal AI breakthroughs. He predicts routine tasks will require fewer engineers as automation rises while urging a positive vision for AI's future through broad participation.
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Separate Impact From Capability
- AI progress and its societal impact are distinct questions and should be evaluated separately.
- Nathan argues GPT-5's improvements were real but harder to perceive because expectations shifted and interim releases blurred leaps.
Post-Training And Context Matter
- Progress can come from larger models or smarter post-training and context handling, not just raw scale.
- Nathan highlights longer context windows and post-training as a major source of recent gains.
Reasoning Reached New Frontiers
- Reasoning abilities have advanced from high-school math to IMO-level performance in months.
- Models are starting to contribute to scientific discovery and hypothesis generation that GPT-4 couldn't achieve.