Macro Musings with David Beckworth Ben Harris on the Fiscal Health of the US Government
Jul 14, 2025
Ben Harris, vice president at the Brookings Institution and former Treasury official, dives into the U.S. government's fiscal health. He addresses the rising primary deficit and critiques the Big Beautiful Bill, discussing its implications on the national debt. Ben also explores how stablecoins and AI could offer innovative solutions to economic challenges. He shares insights on the unpredictability of debt dynamics, the significance of the debt ceiling, and the interplay between inflation and government spending, all while reflecting on his love for basketball.
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Ben's Basketball Aging Story
- Ben Harris shared his experience playing basketball into middle age and deciding to quit as he aged.
- He found it hard to keep up with younger players and realized it was time to stop for now.
Structural Primary Deficits Matter
- The U.S. is running a structural primary deficit, spending more than revenue even before interest costs.
- This primary deficit signals long-term fiscal imbalance and rising debt-to-GDP ratios.
Big Bill Escalates Fiscal Stress
- The "Big Beautiful Bill" worsens the fiscal outlook by cutting revenues far more than spending.
- Its front-loaded deficit increases accelerate fiscal stress and raise skepticism about future deficit control.