Unhedged

Outlook 2026

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Jan 8, 2026
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INSIGHT

Market Valuations Are Unusually High

  • Stocks are broadly expensive across sectors, not just in AI or big tech.
  • High market valuations historically predict poor long-term returns even if timing is uncertain.
ADVICE

Don’t Exit Markets; Diversify Instead

  • Take a measured, diversified approach rather than exiting markets entirely.
  • Keep some bond or cash buffers because timing a bubble's fade is very hard.
INSIGHT

Markets Are Repricing AI Excesses

  • AI euphoria appears to be cooling as markets punish overreach by some firms.
  • Examples like NVIDIA flattening and selling pressure on Oracle and Meta show selective re-pricing already happening.
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